$ETH Thoughts:
1. ETH's current technical contradictions
Divergence risk: The hourly chart volume-price divergence is indeed worthy of vigilance, especially in the absence of trading volume support, the probability of a pullback after a sharp rise increases. If the trading volume does not increase after the opening of the US stock market, be careful of a rapid retracement to the 1926-1938 range.
Key breakthrough level:
Bull signal: Stand firm at 1975 (confirming strength) or close the daily line above the 50-day EMA, the target can be 2000+.
Bear signal: Fall below 1926 and cannot be recovered quickly, it may drop to 1895-1852.
2. BTC and ETH linkage
BTC dominance: Your observation is correct-BTC often sucks blood from altcoins in the early stage of its rise, but if BTC stabilizes and funds overflow, ETH, as the "altcoin leader", will benefit first. At present, it is necessary to observe whether BTC breaks through the previous high. If BTC stagnates, it will be difficult for ETH to have an independent market.
ETH/BTC exchange rate: 0.02029 is a key watershed, and a breakthrough may drive the rotation of the altcoin sector. If the exchange rate is weak, the rise of ETH against the US dollar may be limited.
3. Operation suggestions
Short-term:
Aggressive: If the volume breaks through 1946, you can chase long positions with a light position; if it falls below 1938 and the trading volume increases, consider shorting (stop loss 1950).
Conservative: Wait for 1975 to confirm or stabilize below 1926 before making a layout.
Mid-term: After the daily line stabilizes at the 50-day EMA, you can build positions in batches, with a target of 2024-2079.
4. Risk warning
Macro impact: The opening volatility of the US stock market and the Fed's policy expectations may amplify the volatility of cryptocurrencies.
Altcoin risks: If BTC suddenly falls, ETH may follow and fall more sharply, so positions need to be strictly controlled.
5. Strategies for those who are stuck
Timing of covering positions: If the price falls back to the 1850-1895 area and the volume shrinks to stop the decline, you can consider covering positions in batches to reduce costs.
Stop loss discipline: If it falls below 1850 and there is no sign of rebound, you need to guard against a deeper correction.
Summary: ETH needs volume to break through key positions in the short term, otherwise the pressure of correction will be great. Pay close attention to BTC trends and ETH/BTC exchange rate, and use key position breakthroughs as signals in operations to avoid blindly chasing ups and downs.
As the market continues to change, we have to pay close attention to market signals and seize new entry opportunities. Like + leave a message, and take you through the bull market to stand firm in the market and seize this round of big opportunities!
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