Many people say that there is no altcoin season anymore, and that the four-year bull-bear cycle is gone. I think if it follows a four-year cycle, it means this major bull market should occur in 2025. It's not even 2025 yet, and predictions say it's over? Wasn't the major bull market in 2017 also from September to December? This year hasn't even reached September yet.

Secondly, some say there are too many cryptocurrencies now, and there isn’t enough money to pump them all; there used to be only a few thousand coins, and now there are tens of thousands being created daily, and the total number of cryptocurrencies is not far from surpassing 100 million. If I create a coin for fun on the blockchain, can it also break a market cap of ten million dollars when the bull market comes? There are indeed thousands of new coins every day, but the vast majority drop to zero that same day, let alone make it to the secondary market. Institutions don't pump these kinds of coins; they pump at least those that have a presence in the secondary market, on mainstream exchanges. Checking the current CMC or CoinTiger, I find that CMC lists more than 9,700 coins, while CoinTiger has around 17,000.

In past bull markets during altcoin seasons, Bitcoin's market share had to exceed 70%, and Bitcoin had to break its previous high, then consolidate for a few days before altcoins would start to rally. After Bitcoin stabilized, it would continue to rise, and altcoin season would continue to follow suit... After several rounds, when Bitcoin peaked and started to fall, altcoins would also begin to drop, marking the start of a long bear market. In a bear market, Bitcoin can drop as low as 85%, while altcoins can drop by 99%. Then the next round begins... Looking back at 2024, there were two small bull markets, one in March and one in December. In both cases, Bitcoin's market share did not exceed 70%. After Bitcoin broke its new high twice, altcoins only rose once before starting to plummet because Bitcoin did not continuously break new highs. Looking back at the bull market from January to April 2021, Bitcoin's market share reached over 70% in January, and then in those four months, it continuously broke new highs, increasing by more than three times, while altcoins increased by dozens of times.

If Bitcoin does not break new highs in the future, then there will indeed be no altcoin season. Or if Bitcoin breaks new highs and then falls back, there won’t be an altcoin season either. Personally, I still have a positive outlook on the performance of altcoins in the coming six months.