After Bitcoin surpasses 99K, the short-term pullback risk has significantly increased. From a technical perspective, the RSI is overbought (daily above 90) and the high funding rates in derivatives (0.1%+) reflect an overheated market, with crowded long positions that could trigger a series of liquidations. On-chain data warning: whales have reduced their holdings by 32,000 BTC in the past week, net inflows to exchanges have surged by 40%, and miner wallet balances have also dropped to a yearly low, revealing selling pressure. On a macro level, the Federal Reserve's accelerated balance sheet reduction in September may suppress liquidity. Historical patterns show that the average pullback after breaking a previous high for the first time is about 18% (support reference 85,000-88,000). However, in the medium to long term, institutional ETF funds still see a weekly net inflow of 1.2 billion dollars, the halving cycle is not over, and a deep pullback may present a layout opportunity. One must guard against leverage risks and avoid chasing highs.