After Bitcoin broke 99K at #BTC突破99K , the short-term pullback risk has significantly increased. From a technical perspective, the RSI is overbought (daily over 90) and the high funding rates in derivatives (0.1%+) reflect an overheated market, with leveraged long positions crowded and prone to triggering cascading liquidations. On-chain data warns: whales have reduced their holdings by 32,000 BTC in the past week, net inflows to exchanges have surged by 40%, and miner wallet balances have also dropped to a year-to-date low, with selling pressure emerging. On a macro level, the Fed's accelerated balance sheet reduction in September may suppress liquidity. Historical patterns indicate that the average pullback after breaking a previous high for the first time is about 18% (support reference 85,000 to 88,000). However, in the medium to long term, institutional ETF net inflows still reach 1.2 billion USD per week, the halving cycle has not ended, and a deep pullback may present a buying opportunity, but one must guard against leverage risk and avoid chasing highs.