Standard Chartered has initiated formal coverage of Binance's exchange token, BNB, and provided one of the most detailed long-term trajectories for the asset in the industry. In a research note shared with The Block, Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital asset research, argues that the token's price could accelerate from around $600 today to $1,275 by 2025 and $2,775 by 2028, before 'stabilizing' by 2029.

BNB could soar 360%

This path implies an increase of over 360% from current levels and importantly places the token in a position Kendrick refers to as 'benchmark-like role' within the broader cryptocurrency capital structure. Kendrick writes that 'BNB has traded almost precisely in line with a basket of unweighted Bitcoin and Ethereum since May 2021 in terms of both returns and volatility'. 'We expect this relationship to continue to hold, driving the price from around $600 today to $2,775 by the end of 2028.'

Standard Chartered's broader outlook is unabashedly optimistic about major coins: Bitcoin is forecasted to reach $200,000 by 2025 and $500,000 by 2028, while Ethereum is predicted at $4,000 and $7,500 in the same time frame. When these forecasts are translated into cross-asset ratios, they show subtle shifts in market share.

The BTC-BNB ratio—the amount of BNB that one Bitcoin can buy—is expected to rise from 157 in 2025 to 180 in 2027, before holding steady, implying that the dollar price increase of Bitcoin is likely to outpace BNB. Conversely, the ETH-BNB ratio is projected to decrease from 3.14 in 2025 to 2.70 in 2027, signaling that Ethereum may outperform BNB, but less so than Bitcoin.

Kendrick acknowledges that BNB 'may underperform Bitcoin and Ether in terms of both intrinsic value and circulating market cap', but he asserts that the deflationary tokenomics and deep ties to the world's largest centralized exchange 'support its long-term value'.

The research note thoroughly examines the architecture of BNB Chain. Its 'proof-of-stake authority' model only rotates 45 validators every 24 hours—a stark contrast to Ethereum's more than a million validators. Kendrick describes BNB Chain as 'highly centralized compared to other chains', adding that developer activity has 'stalled' since the DeFi boom of 2021 and is now lagging behind networks like Avalanche and Ethereum.

Nonetheless, upcoming technical milestones are expected to enhance the ecosystem's resilience. Kendrick cites the recently completed hard fork Pascal and the upcoming Maxwell upgrade, anticipated in June, as examples of 'incremental but meaningful' drivers for developers.

On the demand side, the token's fortunes remain closely tied to Binance's trading tools. Holders receive tiered fee discounts calculated on their token balance and 30-day trading volume— a use case that has so far 'helped BNB Chain operate even as competition from other ecosystems like Solana increases,' Kendrick notes. PancakeSwap, the dominant decentralized exchange on BNB Chain, amplifies that liquidity loop.

Meanwhile, regular token burns, along with a fixed limited supply, reinforce the structural deflation that Standard Chartered believes justifies the premium BNB displays on its market cap to GDP ratio—currently 'rich' by the bank's preferred metrics.