May 8, 2025 BTC Hardcore Survival Guide
Current Situation
Bitcoin is stuck at a high of $99,259 in a "suffocating oscillation". To break through $100,000, it must overcome three layers of blockade: a technical false breakout trap, fluctuating Federal Reserve policies, and liquidity draining from altcoins.
Core Market Contradictions
Bull-Bear Psychological Warfare: Prices are tightly hugging the upper Bollinger Band but are secretly perilous, with MACD red bars shortening + RSI hovering around 60. The main players are playing "wolf coming" and retreating before the high of $99,419.
Policy Double-Edged Sword: Powell's statement of "possible rate cuts in June" has caused market division, compounded by Trump's press conference tonight at ten, with policy disturbances comparable to a "timed nuclear bomb". Altcoin Drag: ETH is stuck at the resistance of $1,880, pretending to be dead, while funds flee to EOS swaps and other obscure concepts, forming a "lame bull market" pattern.
Today's Life-and-Death Line
Breakthrough Identification: If the previous high of $99,419 is broken, it must simultaneously meet: ① Hourly spot trading volume ≥ 28,000 BTC; ② CME open contract increase > 3%. Defensive Bottom Line: The first support area is at $98,500, with the EMA30 moving average at $95,500 as the mid-term lifeline. If breached, it may trigger algorithmic sell-offs down to $93,000.
Funding Alarm: Net inflow to exchanges > 12,000 BTC/hour will trigger massive whale sell-offs.
Three Types of Emergency Kits
👉 Mountain Top Freezing Type
Lifesaver: If it falls below $98,200, immediately stop loss. Averaging Down: If the price retraces to $95,500 and holds above $96,000 for two consecutive 4-hour candlesticks, average down 1/3 of the position to raise costs to $97,300.
👉 Midway Type
Dynamic Stop Loss: Initial set at $96,800, every $500 rise moves the stop loss up by $350. If ETH does not break $1,850, then the probability of BTC breaking $100,000 is < 15%.
👉 Leverage Gambler Type
Immediately cut 50% of the position, set a hard stop loss at $98,500 for the remainder.
Old Investor's Iron Rule
Beware of Triple Nuclear Explosion: Federal Reserve policy fluctuations + Trump's rhetoric + abnormal inflow of $2.8 billion into BTC ETF in a single day. Average down in three batches at $95,500/$94,800/$93,500, combined with trading volume shrinking below the 15-day moving average. Stop loss case: Short at $97,000, stop loss at $99,500, accurately hitting $95,500 for a take profit.
Ultimate Prediction
Today's oscillation range is $95,500-$99,200. To break $100,000, it must meet:
① ETH stabilizes at $1,850 to drive a rebound
② Nasdaq's opening drop < 1%
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