The Bitcoin mining industry in the US faces a slowdown risk due to President Trump's import tax policy, opening opportunities for Russia and other regions like Africa and Canada. Could this be a turning point for the global mining market? Let's analyze in detail.
Trump’s Tax Policy Threatens US Miners
#LuxorTechnology warns that if the Trump administration imposes comprehensive import taxes on Bitcoin mining machines – mainly from China like Bitmain's Antminer line – costs in the US will skyrocket. The basic tax of 10% could rise to 50% after 'Liberation Day,' although currently delayed for 90 days (except China). From February to early April, this policy has affected both traditional and crypto markets, with taxes expected to increase from 12.6% to 38.6% in July if no agreement is reached.
This forced Riot – a major mining company – to sell all mined BTC in April, the first time after 15 months of 'HODL,' to maintain cash flow. Luxor predicts domestic demand will decrease, shifting computing power to Russia, Canada, Northern Europe, Ethiopia, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Paraguay.
Russia: The Most Potential Winner
According to Luxor's COO Ethan Vera, Russia may benefit significantly if taxes are implemented. With lower machine costs and easier capital flows from China, Russia becomes an attractive destination. Additionally, Russia is preparing to launch a national crypto exchange, legalizing crypto to evade sanctions after the Ukraine conflict, adding to its advantages.
Regions like Canada, Northern Europe (cheap energy), and Africa (Ethiopia) are also attracting attention due to an improving legal environment, creating competition for the US.
The US Strengthens Domestic Production
BitFuFu and Bitdeer are committed to expanding in the US but are adjusting their strategies. BitFuFu is importing S21 machines from Bitmain first and seeking a new base, while Bitdeer is preparing to launch the 'Made in USA' Sealminer line by the end of this year. Luxor and BitFuFu are advocating for tax exemptions for mining machines (like HTSUS code 8471 for computers), promoting domestic production. However, Ethan Vera warns it will take several years for the US to reach significant scale, as components still depend on Asia.
In February, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) seized machines from MicroBT and Canaan due to suspected violations of the Sophgo chip ban, although the reasons are unclear, adding further obstacles.
Impact on the Crypto Market
This event brings many signals:
Mining shift: Russia and other regions may increase hash rates, affecting Bitcoin ($94,000, forecasted $120,000).
Promoting innovation: The US pushing domestic production can support ETFs (attracting $1.8 billion last week) and fund flows of $3.4 billion.
Long-term growth: Forecast of accumulating $330 billion in Bitcoin by 2029 (Bernstein) remains optimistic if policy adjustments are made.
Future Outlook
If the US does not exempt taxes, Russia could lead mining in the next 1-2 years. However, if the US promotes domestic production and legal frameworks, the industry could recover, especially as Trump prioritizes crypto as a 'national priority.'
Conclusion: Will Russia Dominate Bitcoin Mining?
The tax policy of #TRUMP increases mining costs in the US, opening opportunities for Russia and other regions to benefit from lower costs. Although the US is striving for domestic production with Sealminer, the industry needs time to recover. Investors should closely monitor to assess the impact on the global mining market.
Risk warning: Crypto investment carries high risks due to price volatility and legal uncertainties. Please consider carefully before participating.