In-Depth Interpretation of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Meeting: Under the Hawkish Pause, Underlying Currents are Stirring
1. Policy Tone: The Art of Maintaining Stability
The Federal Reserve has appropriately pressed the "pause button," maintaining interest rates for the third consecutive time. However, the policy statement rarely mentions both "upward risk in unemployment rate" and "recurring threats of inflation," indicating that the economy is walking on a tightrope. Although the S&P 500 ultimately rose by 0.43%, the sharp fluctuations during the day exposed market anxiety—like a calm sea before a storm, hiding swirling undercurrents.
2. Powell's Balancing Act
"Patience" has become a high-frequency term: emphasizing "waiting patiently" 11 times, likening decision-making to traditional Chinese medicine diagnosing pulses, requiring continuous observation of "hard data," this set of "pulse signs," while remaining vigilant towards survey-based "soft data."
Trump's Remote Game: When asked about the president's pressure, Powell cleverly responded with, "The Federal Reserve does not actively invite," showcasing the central bank's independence, but the phrase "meetings should be initiated by the White House" carries hidden political wisdom.
3. Insights from China's Economic Maze
Data Discrepancy: Just as China's PMI and electricity consumption data diverge, the U.S. faces a similar contradiction of "hot consumption but shrinking production capacity," with Powell choosing to trust real economic activity data.
Policy Dilemma: When reporters pressed on "protecting jobs or controlling inflation," the Fed's entanglement evokes China's balancing act of "stabilizing growth while preventing risks," with Powell's statement of "the time is not right" resonating with our "cross-cycle adjustment."
4. Re-evaluation of Market Expectations
CME Interest Rate Futures Indicate:
Short-Term: An 80% probability of no change in June, akin to the Chinese central bank's approach of "remaining unchanged amidst fluctuations" in exchange rates.
Mid-Term: July rate cut expectations have risen to 72%, but the probability differentiation between 25 basis points and 50 basis points reflects institutions' disagreement over "moderate stimulus" versus "strong relief."
5. Global Investors' Memorandum
The core message conveyed by the Federal Reserve this time can be summarized with an ancient Chinese saying: "More haste, less speed."
Consumer resilience masks weakness on the corporate side
In a complex environment, "waiting for the wind to come" shows more skill than "chasing the wind away." For investors holding dollar assets, it is advisable to pay attention to the U.S. inventory data corrections in the third quarter, which may become the key to breaking the stalemate of inaction.
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