Is Powell's speech bullish? Why is there a violent rally in the crypto market today? Is it a short?

Answer: Powell is not bullish, it's bearish, very clear. At the same time, the violent rally is a shift in the narrative of speculation over the past few days to the progress of tariff negotiations, with the starting point being Trump's speech this morning. However, shorting is not recommended.

1. Powell stated at the press conference that the Federal Reserve is currently not in a hurry to cut interest rates, the main reason being the current economic situation is full of uncertainty. Especially in the context of the U.S. negotiating tariffs with several countries, the future policy direction and its specific impact on the economy are still difficult to judge.

He repeatedly emphasized that now is not the right time to assess the economic consequences of these tariff measures, so the Federal Reserve needs to remain cautious. As for whether there will be a rate cut within the year, Powell did not provide a clear direction, only stating that a rate cut is possible, but it is also possible to maintain the current rates.

2. If you watched Powell's speech live, you should have understood that all the questions from the reporters present were very professional, focusing on the issues that matter most to us in the crypto community, hoping to receive dovish signals from Powell, but clearly, there was no positive response!

3. So just as I summarized earlier this morning: the bearish sentiment from the Federal Reserve can be understood as extending to the end of this month while the tariff issue announced by Trump has become the current main narrative. I immediately realized the changes based on the news and combined it with the dynamics of the main players to provide a summary.

4. It is also important to note that the trade talks currently have a short-term continuity narrative, and tonight Trump will hold a major press conference in the Oval Office, involving a significant trade agreement reached with a respected major country. This is the first (reached agreement)! There will also be speculation on U.S.-China trade talks tomorrow. Currently, shorting against the trend carries high risk.

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May 7, 2025, "Crypto 24" Issue 69