Order Data Tendency:
BTC/USDT Exchange Order Book Heatmap and Main Transactions show that the recent price rebounded from around $97,500 to nearly the $99,700-$100,000 area (the dark horizontal bars on the right show massive sell orders suppressing the price). The green and red dots represent large buy and sell transactions, respectively: it can be seen that there were substantial bull purchases near $97,500 (green circles), while there were large sell transactions above $99,700 (red circles), reflecting the contest between bulls and bears at key price levels.
From the four-hour K-line perspective, BTC/USDT has recently maintained an overall upward trend, with bulls repeatedly holding key support during pullbacks and pushing prices higher, gradually increasing the highs and lows. However, as prices approach $100,000, this historic psychological level, upward momentum begins to encounter significant resistance. Order book data further reveals market sentiment divergence:
Order Difference and Buying/Selling Power: Data from the order book shows that near the current price level, the volume of sell orders is significantly greater than that of buy orders (order difference is negative), for example, Binance's order difference is about -$415 million, with total sell orders around $973 million, far exceeding the buy orders of $558 million. This indicates that a large number of sell orders are piled up at the upper level of $99,700-$100,000 (resistance), while the amount willing to place buy orders below is relatively small, showing that market supply exceeds demand. This reflects that short-term bearish order power is stronger, with many sellers anticipating profit-taking or establishing short positions as they approach $100,000, limiting the upward price space.
Average Transaction Price: The main forces of bulls and bears within the rangeAverage Trading PriceAlso provides clues. Data from various platforms show that the average transaction price of bullish buy orders is generally higher than that of bearish sell orders (for example, the average buy price on Binance is about98,462USD, while the average sell price is about98,331USD), indicating that bulls tend to actively buy at higher prices, while bear selling is concentrated at slightly lower price levels. This phenomenon usually occurs duringPrice Upward Phase, reflecting that buyers are chasing higher prices, and the selling pressure from sellers has been released at lower levels. In conjunction with the trend, this meansBulls are absorbingBear sales at higher levels, thus pushing prices further up. This proactive absorption of selling indicates that short-term bulls still have confidence, but it may also suggest that bulls are passively increasing their holding costs, which carries certain risks.
Comparison of Bull and Bear Forces: Based on comprehensive transaction and order data, short-term bear forces have a slight advantage. The net selling of main funds and a large number of sell orders indicate strong confidence among bears/sellers; however, on the other hand, bulls have not exited the market and show significant intervention at key support levels, with the price trend still dominated by rising lows. Therefore, the current market sentiment can be described as cautiously neutral with a slight bearish bias: large funds tend to reduce positions at highs, indicating a conservative attitude towards the upper space, while remaining bulls hope for another breakout after support holds steady. In other words, the bull-bear game is intense, with sentiment not extremely optimistic nor completely pessimistic, but rather in a state of observation and waiting for a breakout.
Liquidity Heatmap
Bull Strategy
Entry Area: Pay attention to signs of stabilization when the price retraces close to the $97,500-$98,000support zone. Ideally, positioning for long orders can be done in batches near$97,500; if the market is strong and does not fall too deeply below support, consider entering above$98,000, close to the previous wave's low point, ensuring that support is used as a foundation. According to the liquidity heatmap analysis, 'if Bitcoin retraces and stabilizes in the $97,500-$98,000 range, consider building long positions in batches,' reflecting that the market generally recognizes the idea of buying low at this support zone.
Stop Loss Position: Strictly set below $97,000 by about 1-2%, for example, around $96,800, or slightly lower than the previous low of $97,500 (a buffer is needed to avoid false breakdowns). If the support of $97,500 is effectively broken, it indicates that the short-term trend may weaken, and at that time, bulls should decisively stop loss and exit.
Target Price: The first target should be aimed at the previous high resistance zone of $99,500-$99,700, where it may be prudent to take some profits; if bullish momentum is strong and breaks through the $100,000 mark, hold remaining positions and look towards the $102,000 area (refer to breakout range calculations or previous higher resistance levels). Conservatives may set $100,000 as the primary take-profit level, as significant fluctuations may occur at the integer level.
Bear Strategy
Entry Area: When the price rebounds close to the $99,700-$100,000resistance zone, consider building short positions in batches at high prices. Particularly when there are signals ofWeak Breakthrough, High Pullback (such as a massive sell-off immediately during the attempt to break 100K, or a long upper shadow appearing in the resistance zone), this is an ideal entry point for bears. Aggressive bears may start tentatively building positions above$99,500, gradually adding to positions as they approach the $100,000 integer level to achieve an average short cost as close to resistance as possible.
Stop Loss Position: Strictly placed above the key resistance, recommended slightly above the $100,000 level, such as $100,500 or at most $101,000. Considering the potential for momentary false breakthroughs and slippage at $100K, stop-loss needs to provide a certain buffer but should not be too loose. If the price effectively breaks above $100K and stabilizes above this level, it indicates that the upward trend continues, and bears should decisively stop loss and exit to prevent further losses.
Target Price: Bears should initially look towards the key support level of $97,500 as the first target price. Caution should be exercised near this position: since it is a crucial defensive area for bulls, bear positions can be largely closed here to prevent profit reversals due to another price rebound. If it breaks below $97,500, a small portion of the position can continue to be held, targeting the next support of $96,500 or even $95,500 (depending on the strength of the downward trend).
Current signs of net outflow of main transactions and order suppression indicate that short-term bears have a slight advantage, making it safer to engage in short positions in areas where bear forces are concentrated. However, it is essential to closely monitor changes in market sentiment: if suddenly favorable news or large whales sweep in to strongly break through $100K, bears should decisively exit; conversely, if there is a prolonged inability to break through and trading volume declines, bear confidence will further strengthen, and they can patiently hold until the price approaches support to close positions.
Finally:
Currently, BTC/USDT is at a critical decision point before breaking through historical resistance in the 4-hour timeframe. Based on comprehensive exchange order data and main transaction analysis, short-term market sentiment is leaning towards caution: bulls are striving to support the upward trend relying on the $97,500 support, while bears are laying out defenses before the $100,000 threshold. In terms of operations, it is recommended to go long if the price retraces without breaking support, following the trend towards the integer level; if there is resistance and a pullback, consider shorting at higher levels to capture retracement profits.
