The cryptocurrency Dogecoin began May 2025 with notable momentum changes that analysts believe could trigger a price increase of nearly 50% to $0.40. DOGE started May with two promising signal points stemming from technical analysis beyond on-chain indicators.
The combination of a significant closure of the monthly Fair Value Gap with increased on-chain investor activity and expectations for the approval of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) has created a positive outlook for DOGE. These three distinct events form a synchronous opportunity appearing as market sentiment begins to recover.
In April 2025, Dogecoin completed a long-standing monthly fair value gap that began at the start of 2021. From the beginning of 2021 until the end of April 2025, FVG existed in the range from $0.115 to $0.135 when it finally closed at that time. Price volatility tends to be attracted to existing fair value gaps, causing the asset to revert to previously inefficient market value.
DOGE has successfully entered this profit zone by maintaining above $0.135, creating a potential bullish pattern. Price action reacts quickly as long-standing FVG closes, especially on long-term time frame charts including monthly charts. The removal of a key resistance zone allows investors to focus their analysis on blockchain data supporting the recent price increase.
On-Chain Data Reflects Accumulation Trend
Blockchain analytical tools show an increasing accumulation trend for DOGE across multiple platforms in late April. Investors holding between 100,000 to 1 million DOGE units have increased their cryptocurrency holdings while the price of DOGE remains within the FVG zone. This group of investors, holding between 100,000 to 1 million DOGE units, has generated a net increase in the money supply while the trading supply decreased at this time.
Average trading volume increased significantly by 18.1% from April 15 to May 1, indicating a strong surge in capital movements in the market. The increase in transaction volume signals employee support for higher prices in line with technical market signals. During this accumulation phase, along with a reduction in investor sell-offs, the market typically progresses towards $0.23 – $0.27 – $0.32 – $0.37 – $0.42 – $0.48.
ETF Approval Rate Currently at 64%
Market analysts tracking legal sentiment have recorded a strong increase in the approval rate for the Dogecoin ETF, now estimated at 64%. Recent legal developments and broader changes in the market sector have caused this approval rate to rise from 39% in March 2021.
Research shows increased approval likelihood during the period when institutions begin to activate interest in meme-based digital assets. From derivatives market data, we can see that open interest for DOGE futures has increased by 22% in the past week. New advancements in the ETF process in May could sustain further speculative cash flow. Combined signals from regulatory measures, technical indicators, and blockchain network activity have developed the current surge of Dogecoin.