BTC has retested the 97K USD mark ahead of US-China negotiations in Switzerland.
The probability of reaching a trade agreement according to Polymarket is under 30% at the time of writing.
Bitcoin (BTC) temporarily retested the 97K USD price level on Tuesday following news of the US-China negotiations in Switzerland aimed at reaching a trade agreement.
The meeting has been confirmed by the US Treasury with the statement,
“In Switzerland, Minister Bessent will also meet with key economic representatives from the People's Republic of China (PRC).”
Could changes in macroeconomic factors trigger a BTC price increase to 100K USD?
President Donald Trump raised import tariffs from China to 145% in April. In response, China imposed a 125% tariff on imports from the United States.
Uncertainty has destabilized the market, including Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. In fact, BTC has dropped 15% from 88K USD to 74.5K USD.
However, the asset stabilized at the end of April after Trump showed the possibility of reaching a tariff agreement with China. The May meeting will be the first effort to resolve the tariff deadlock, a macro factor that has limited BTC's recovery.
Notably, the Chinese embassy in the United States confirmed the meeting and announced,
“Vice Premier He Lifeng, who leads economic and trade issues between China and the United States, will negotiate with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during his visit to Switzerland from May 9 to 12.”
Source: Capriole Investment
Macroeconomic relief since late April has propelled BTC from 74K USD to 96K USD, emphasized by positive expansion on the Bitcoin Macro Index.
Any positive updates regarding macroeconomic factors will continue to push BTC prices higher.
However, the Polymarket prediction page is not optimistic about the outcome of the negotiations this month.
According to the page, there is only under a 30% chance of a US-China trade agreement before June.
Source: Polymarket
In the options market, traders are actively buying call options (bullish bets) as the 25-Delta Risk Reversal (25RR) is positive for the end of May and June expirations.
On Deribit, traders predict a 16% chance of BTC rising to 110K USD in May, and this rate increases to 28% in June.
Source: Deribit
However, any negative updates from the US-China trade negotiations could impact BTC and should be monitored closely.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-tang-vot-cuoc-hop-hoa-ky-trung-tao-song-thi-truong/
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