#比特币预测

#Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting# On May 8, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will remain unchanged, and short-term market fluctuations will depend on Powell's attitude. Cryptocurrencies and the stock market may face adjustment pressures, while the US dollar and Treasury yields may benefit. Given the uncertainty regarding tariffs, the Fed's 'wait-and-see' strategy has its logic, but it may underestimate the risks of economic downturn.

Short-term market reactions are increasingly volatile but directionless. Due to the extremely low volatility of Bitcoin recently, significant price fluctuations may occur after the FOMC meeting. The current negative perpetual contract funding rate may provide buying opportunities for investors, especially for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. If Powell does not provide clear signals for interest rate cuts during the press conference, the market may experience short-term selling pressure, and the dollar index may rise above 100 due to safe-haven demand, suppressing gold to the $2500-$2600 range. However, if Powell hints at the possibility of future rate cuts, risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies may rebound, with BTC potentially testing the $100,000 resistance level.

If the FOMC decision does not trigger significant panic, BTC may experience a 10%-15% fluctuation after the decision. In the long term, Trump's calls for rate cuts and institutional adoption, such as ETF inflows, still support BTC's rise, but the uncertainty of tariff policies may limit short-term gains. The interest rate decision will remain unchanged, and the stock market may fluctuate within a narrow range, focusing on the breakthrough of 5,600 points. If the dollar index rises to 100 due to the decision, it may benefit dollar assets and negatively impact emerging market currencies and commodities.

The Federal Reserve's wait-and-see strategy seems reasonable, but it is questionable whether its assessment of the impact of Trump's tariffs may be overly cautious. The transmission of tariffs on inflation has a lagging effect, and current data has not fully reflected its impact, while the slowdown in GDP and weak ADP already indicate risks of economic downturn. If the Fed overly relies on employment data while neglecting growth signals, it may miss the window for preventive rate cuts. Powell's low-cost wait-and-see rhetoric may underestimate the market's demand for policy clarity, especially under pressure from Trump, the Fed's independence may face challenges.