The FOMC meeting has concluded, and the market's bets on future interest rate decisions have been freshly released.

Regarding the June interest rate decision, the situation has become clear, with a probability as high as 80% indicating that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged.

The probability of a rate cut has significantly decreased, showing a notable reversal compared to previous expectations.

Attention now turns to July, where market expectations are more complex and diverse. Among them, a 30% probability points to no rate cut; a 57% likelihood suggests a 25 basis point cut;

while a 12.4% probability indicates that the cut could reach 50 basis points.

Such divergent expectations lead one to wonder whether the market has sensed some signs of recession? Or is it worried that the stock market will hit new lows, and the job market conditions will worsen?

After all, the non-farm payroll data for May and June is likely to perform poorly, casting a shadow over the economic outlook.

Looking ahead to September, the market generally believes that interest rates will most likely drop to the 375 - 400 range. Overall, a wave of rate cuts is likely to restart in July.

If this expectation comes true, will the closely related quantitative tightening (QT) policy also be announced to end at the July FOMC meeting?

This series of uncertainties is becoming a focal point of close attention from all sides of the market, affecting investors' nerves and adding many variables to the future economic trajectory.