Updated with the latest technical data, below is a detailed analysis by each time frame, along with the proposed trading strategy and success probability assessment.
1. Multi-frame technical analysis
a. 5-minute frame
• Current price: 152.34 (+3.56%)
• EMA: EMA(7) > EMA(25) > EMA(99) → Short-term upward trend.
• RSI: RSI(6) = 84.75, RSI(12) = 78.67 → Strong overbought condition.
• MACD: Weak upward signal.
• Volume: Below average → Lacking upward momentum.
• Conclusion: Likely short correction before continuing to rise.
b. 15-minute frame
• Current price: 152.06
• EMA: Upward trend maintained.
• RSI: In overbought territory → Warning of short-term correction.
• MACD & Volume: Weak buying force, low volume.
• Conclusion: Price fluctuates around the 152 area, so wait for clearer confirmation signals.
c. 1-hour frame
• Current price: 152.12 (+3.41%)
• EMA: Stable medium-term increase.
• RSI: Overbought.
• MACD: Maintaining upward signal.
• Volume: Does not confirm trend → Further observation needed.
• Conclusion: Still in an upward trend, but likely short correction due to high RSI.
d. 4-hour frame
• Current price: 152.25 (+3.49%)
• EMA: Strong increase, clear structure.
• RSI: Near overbought area.
• MACD: Good growth.
• OBV: Negative and diverging from price → Warning of reversal risk.
• Conclusion: Reliable upward trend but need to be cautious with OBV divergence.
e. 1-day frame
• Current price: 152.27 (+3.51%)
• EMA: Mixed, unclear.
• RSI: Near overbought, neutral.
• MACD: Slightly decreasing.
• Volume: Very large → Indicates potential strong volatility.
• Conclusion: More time needed to confirm long-term trend.
2. Trading scenarios & success probability
a. Main scenario: BUY ON CORRECTION (Priority – Probability 65%)
• Ideal buying area: 149.50 – 150.50 (support from EMA and Fibonacci in the 4H frame).
• Take profit: 155.00 (psychological resistance) or 158.00 (previous peak).
• Stop loss: Below 148.00 (losing EMA99 4H).
• Estimated success rate: 65% if the price holds the support area.
b. Alternative scenario: SHORT SELL (If breaking support – Probability 35%)
• Activation condition: Price closes below 148.00.
• Take profit: 145.00 or 142.50.
• Stop loss: Above 149.50.
• Estimated success rate: 35% due to the large trend still increasing.
3. Capital management & risk
• Recommended R:R ratio: Minimum 1:2.
• Capital management: Do not use more than 5% of total capital for each order.
• Additional monitoring: Macro news (especially Bitcoin, updates from Binance), along with volume behavior at breakout areas.
Strategy summary
• Preferred strategy: BUY ON CORRECTION when the price reaches the 149.50 – 150.50 range.
• Current risk: Multi-time frame is overbought, OBV divergence.
• Overall success probability: 60–65% if adhering to discipline in order entry & risk management.
Recommendation: Avoid FOMO. Be patient and wait for a reasonable entry point, especially when the short-term frame is overbought.
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