At 2 a.m. Thursday, the Federal Reserve released its latest interest rate decision, with the market expecting interest rates to remain unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5%. On Wednesday evening, U.S. stock indices showed the Nasdaq index down 0.3% intraday, the S&P 500 index up 0.13%, and the Dow Jones index up 0.6%. Gold prices increased by 2.87% on Monday, 2.9% on Tuesday, and fell by 1.2% on Wednesday to 3386 USD/ounce.
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The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Thursday. CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in May is only 3.1%, while the probability of maintaining rates is 96.9%. French Hill, head of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, released a discussion draft of a regulatory framework for digital assets, aiming to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets in the U.S. FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett stated that the main points of the draft include: requiring digital asset developers to disclose key project information; providing a financing pathway under SEC rules, and allowing registration with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); clarifying the division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, and establishing a clear registration process. UK Economic Secretary Emma Reynolds stated that the UK will not follow the U.S. in establishing a national cryptocurrency reserve. The Swiss central bank president stated that the price volatility of cryptocurrencies is too extreme to serve as foreign exchange reserves to preserve value. U.S. Senator Chris Murphy stated that he will propose the (MEME Act), prohibiting the president or members of Congress from issuing Meme coins, and indicated that he will work with Congressman Sam Liccardo to promote legislation to curb such behavior.
U.S. listed company KULR increased its holding by 42 BTC, bringing its total to 716.2 BTC. Japanese listed company Metaplanet increased its holding by 53.4 million USD, approximately 555 BTC. U.S. listed company Thumzup submitted an amendment to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to raise the maximum total issuance amount to 500 million USD for the acquisition of BTC. U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant stated that he opposes the Federal Reserve issuing digital currency. The Governor of New Hampshire signed HB 302, announcing that the state will establish a 'strategic BTC reserve,' allocating no more than 5% of state financial resources to hold precious metals, BTC, and other digital assets with a market value exceeding 500 billion USD (currently only BTC meets the criteria). Enforce U.S. regulatory custody to maximize security and transparency. Effective 60 days after passage, providing a clear operational framework for reserves and stacks. Bitfinex reported that BTC rose strongly by 14.08% in April, surpassing its historical average performance for April, reversing the deep correction trend at the beginning of the month, rebounding from a low of 75,000 USD to nearly 98,000 USD, an increase of over 32%. Once the macro environment stabilizes, the current bull market cycle is expected to continue.
On May 6, the U.S. BTC spot ETF saw an outflow of 85.7 million USD, and the ETH spot ETF saw an outflow of 17.9 million USD. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, summarized: BlackRock's BTC spot ETF IBIT has seen a net inflow for 15 consecutive days, totaling approximately 4.5 billion USD. Currently, BlackRock holds 620,252 BTC, valued at 58.51 billion USD. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that BlackRock's IBIT currently ranks 8th in year-to-date inflows, with a cumulative inflow exceeding 6.4 billion USD, which is a good sign for long-term prospects, enhancing confidence that BTC ETFs will reach three times the asset management scale of gold ETFs within 3 to 5 years. Forbes reports that as Trump promises to open up cryptocurrency market access, Wall Street has quietly increased its support for BTC and cryptocurrencies, accelerating legislation that will reshape the financial system. Wall Street giants with asset management scales of 10 trillion USD are expected to launch BTC businesses this year. Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, stated during a panel discussion on BTC and cryptocurrencies that U.S. dollar inflows are returning on a large scale. Last week, Strategy increased its holdings by 180.3 million USD, approximately 1895 BTC, at an average price of 95,167 USD. On May 6 and 7, Tether issued an additional 2 billion USD stablecoin.
At 2 a.m. Thursday, the Federal Reserve released its latest interest rate decision, with the market expecting interest rates to remain unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5%. 'The Fed's mouthpiece,' reporter Nick Timiraos stated: Trump's tariff implementation is chaotic, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma: whether to cut rates to address economic slowdown or maintain rates to curb inflation. Powell and his colleagues may continue to take a wait-and-see approach and not cut rates for now. Forexlive indicated that the Federal Reserve is expected to hold steady as the U.S. economy is softening, but not enough to force the Fed to react strongly. It is possible that Trump will again harshly criticize Powell over this decision. A Reuters survey shows that over 55% of the 83 respondents expressed concerns about the dollar's safe-haven status, indicating a dimming appeal for the dollar. Wells Fargo strategist Erik Nelson stated: Looking more bearish on the dollar in the second half of the year, more people will recognize the U.S.'s weak hard data, and the Fed is likely to cut rates as the market prices in, with concerns about withdrawing U.S. assets and the Fed's independence possibly re-emerging. Goldman Sachs stated that if a recession occurs, an acceleration of dollar inflows is expected to push gold prices to 3880 USD by the end of the year, with a basic expectation of gold prices at 3700 USD per ounce by the end of the year, reaching 4000 USD by mid-2026. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in July, September, and October due to recession risks brought by tariffs and trade uncertainty, although high inflation and rising unemployment may still prompt the Fed to take action.
On Wednesday evening, U.S. stock indices showed the Nasdaq index down 0.3% intraday, the S&P 500 index up 0.13%, the Dow Jones index up 0.6%, and BTC up 2.5%. Gold prices increased by 2.87% on Monday, 2.9% on Tuesday, and fell by 1.2% on Wednesday to 3386 USD/ounce. The first state BTC strategic reserve bill has been implemented, with New Hampshire signing HB 302, establishing legal status and a policy framework for BTC reserves. Other states' strategic BTC reserve bills are likely to become law. CoinShares data shows that last week, digital asset investment products saw an inflow of 2 billion USD, recording inflows for the third consecutive week. Among them, BTC saw an inflow of 1.8 billion USD, and ETH saw an inflow of 149 million USD, with a total inflow of 336 million USD for ETH over the past two weeks. The dollar's safe-haven appeal is waning, expected to weaken in the second half of the year, while gold continues to rise, and BTC has risen again to around 97,000 USD. The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate meeting is imminent, and this meeting is expected to keep rates unchanged. Powell needs to confront the current risks of economic recession and rising inflation in the U.S.; a recession requires rate cuts, while high inflation necessitates maintaining rates. The market hopes Powell will not be too hawkish on rates, leaving room for a rate cut in June or July.
