CoinVoice has recently learned that a report from CITIC Securities states that during the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May 2025, the policy rate will remain unchanged, with the meeting statement emphasizing that "uncertainty has further intensified." Powell's speech revolved around the words "uncertain" and "watch and see," seemingly providing little incremental information. However, based on our analysis framework of "transitory inflation + weaker growth + high uncertainty," the current U.S. economic data and inflation expectations correspond to a reduction in rate cut expectations.
We still expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates no more than 2 times this year, and we anticipate that the June Federal Reserve meeting will keep the policy rate unchanged. On the market side, the bland meeting did not stir much waves, and we expect the market to continue trading around Trump's tariff policies in the short term. The forex market still shows a bearish sentiment towards the dollar, while the outlook for U.S. stocks remains unclear, with high volatility expected in the short term. [Original link]