$BTC 1. Institutional Consensus and Divergence

◦ Optimistic Forecast: Standard Chartered Bank, VanEck, and others expect prices to reach $180,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025, based on ETF capital inflows and accelerated institutional adoption.

◦ Conservative Forecast: Some analysts believe the market may correct to a range of $87,000 to $95,000, with an average price of about $160,000 for the year.

◦ Extreme Views: Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee predicts that if liquidity expands, prices could break through $250,000; meanwhile, the Kalshi model indicates a 63% probability of dropping below $70,000.

2. Key Variables and Scenario Analysis

◦ Policy Risk: If the U.S. 'Digital Asset Securities Act' is passed, it may require addresses holding more than 1% of the assets to disclose their actual controllers, impacting market liquidity in the short term.

◦ Technical Upgrades: The Lightning Network processes 70% of small payments, and the ASIC-resistant mining algorithm Freicoin enhances decentralization, potentially reshaping market structure.

◦ Competitive Pressure: If Ethereum ETFs are approved, they may divert some funds; although quantum computing threats are long-term, caution is needed regarding private key leakage risks.