#BTC 1. Bitcoin’s Price Volatility:

BTC dipped to around $59,500, reflecting investor nervousness.

A recent rally above $64,000 driven by Hong Kong ETF launches was short-lived due to caution ahead of the Fed meeting.

2. Fed Policy Outlook:

The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady (95.6% probability).

Rate cut expectations have drastically declined, from six cuts to possibly just one or none in 2024.

36% probability now that no cuts will happen this year.

3. Economic Backdrop:

Signs of stagflation: persistent inflation + slowing growth.

Q1 GDP slowed to 1.6% (below expectations).

Core PCE inflation surged to 3.7%, a concerning uptick.

4. Fed’s Tone:

Jerome Powell stressed limited confidence in the disinflation trend.

Signals that higher-for-longer rates may continue without further hikes.

Implications for Bitcoin: Bitcoin, being a risk asset, is vulnerable to tighter monetary policy. Stagflation fears and reduced hopes for monetary easing are pressuring prices. While ETF-related optimism offers bursts of upside, macro conditions are setting the dominant tone for now.#BTC $BTC