Some key highlights from Powell speech

🚨 Inflation has come down a great deal

🚨 Near-term inflation expectations have moved up

🚨 Tariffs so far significantly bigger than expected

🚨 Avoiding persistent inflation will depend on size, timing of tariffs, and inflation expectations

🔸 Time to wait before adjsuting policy

🔸 A great deal of uncertainty about tariffs

🔸 Will know more with each week and month where tariffs will land

🔸 Can’t say how long it will take

🚨 When things develop, we can move quickly if appropriate

🚨 I can’t confidently say I know the appropriate rate path

🚨 President’s calls for rate cuts don’t affect our job at all

🔸 My gut tells me that uncertainty is extremely elevated

🔸 Downside risks have increased

🔸 Don’t see big economic effects in the data yet from tariffs

🔸 People are worried, but shock hasn’t hit yet

🔸 Powell: Asked about March projections for two rate cuts, says can’t make a projection now, wait until June

🚨I’ve never asked for a meeting with President, would never do that

🔸 Powell: It hasn’t happened that the President wants to meet with me.