The Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed)
🧠 Context:
At the latest policy meeting, the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) kept interest rates at 4.25% - 4.5%. But don’t breathe a sigh of relief yet – this is not a signal of “easing”, but a tactical retreat amid a storm of uncertain data.
---
💣 3 Warning Points for Crypto Investors
1. Not increasing, but not stopping the tightening:
Fed keeps interest rates but continues to drain money from the system by shrinking the balance sheet – a form of “invisible tightening”. Liquidity is still being tightened – don’t expect easy money to flow into crypto immediately.
2. Economic outlook = thick fog:
* High inflation is still uncontrolled.
* Strong labor but starting to show signs of stagnation.
* Fed bluntly: “Risks are rising on both ends – both inflation and unemployment.”
⇒ The probability of a financial shock is increasing.
3. Next policy? No one knows.
Fed clearly stated: “Every decision will depend on new data”. Meaning:
* If CPI rises → interest rates may spike.
* If the labor market worsens → Fed may pivot.
The market will be highly volatile according to each upcoming economic data point.
---
🎯 Impact on Crypto:
🚨 Not a “Fed pivot”, but a “Fed waiting for the right time”
This is a sensitive time. The Fed has not “eased”, but has become less “hawkish”. This creates a short-term expectation point, but still clearly warns of macro risks.
📉 Large capital flows have not entered, altcoins are vulnerable
As liquidity remains tight, high-risk assets like altcoins will still experience fluctuations. BTC may play a temporary “defensive” role, but does not rule out the possibility of a “thermal shock” if bad data comes in.
---
✅ Summary of the strategy:
* Don't FOMO if you see the market green after this news – this is just a “knee-jerk reaction”.
* Closely monitor upcoming macro data (CPI, Nonfarm, unemployment) – as the Fed will be watching every number.
* Wait for clearer signals from the Fed to enter medium/long-term positions.
> Fed is not easing – just pausing. The market is not calm – just holding its breath.
