5.8 Early Morning Thoughts
Bitcoin showed strong performance in the early session, with the price quickly rising to a high of 97,700, followed by a technical pullback, hitting a low of 96,153. At this key price level, market buying actively entered to absorb selling pressure, effectively supporting the price stabilization. In the afternoon, bullish strength continued to exert pressure, with Bitcoin steadily climbing at a fluctuating upward pace, facing resistance at the 97,500 level in a second rebound, currently the price range has shifted down to around 96,700. In contrast, Ethereum's trading remained relatively stable throughout the day, maintaining a range-bound pattern between 1,850 and 1,816. During the day, our actual trading operations involved both long and short positions, with Bitcoin capturing over 2,000 points, and Ethereum capturing over 70 points. Despite some stop losses during the day, timely stop-loss operations at key support points helped recover losses.
From a 4-hour technical analysis perspective, the candlestick chart has consistently run close to the upper Bollinger Band, fully demonstrating the current strong bullish market pattern. However, as the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting approaches, market participants' trading sentiment has notably become cautious, with trading volume showing a significant shrinkage trend, leading to a marked decrease in short-term price volatility. Although the MACD indicator shows that the fast and slow lines remain in a golden cross state, coupled with the RSI indicator nearing the overbought area, attention should be paid to potential technical pullbacks in the future. Shifting focus to the 1-hour level, the Bollinger channel shows a clear narrowing pattern, with prices frequently oscillating and consolidating near the middle band. During this process, bearish momentum has been partially released in the short term, accompanied by a moderate increase in trading volume, indicating that the market's demand for a technical rebound is gradually accumulating. It is noteworthy that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to be announced at 2 AM will undoubtedly be a key turning point for market trends. Friends who are still in cash positions can maintain a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for data to land before entering the market. In the early morning, we continue to adopt a bearish outlook.
Bitcoin can be shorted in the range of 97,000-97,500, with a target near 95,000. Ethereum can be shorted in the range of 1,830-1,850, with a target near 1,750.
