A brief bearish sentiment won't lead to a bear market; the overall trend still favors a bull market!
Today's overall market situation is relatively clear. After another dip to a recent low of 93327 last night, it first moved in a volatile upward trend above 95000, followed by a small correction. Then it surged up to an intraday high of 97700, supported strongly by 96000 below, with the pullback not breaking this level. In the afternoon, Bitcoin fluctuated around 97000 for an extended period, showing significant sideways movement.
Ethereum rose to a high of 1850 before correcting to 1816, then slowly climbed back to 1846, but continued to move downward in the evening, currently adjusting above 1810. The intraday strategy is mainly focused on bullish positions in Bitcoin, with a secondary focus on Ethereum, giving Bitcoin a space of 2000+ points and Ethereum a space of 50+ points.
Currently, the overall structure of the day is relatively clear. The upward move has encountered resistance at new highs, and the downward trend lacks continuity. We are at an important moment of choosing direction, and there has been excessive analysis of structure and technicals. As we enter the early morning, let’s mainly discuss the impact of fundamentals.
At 2 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. As I mentioned before, the expectation is likely to remain unchanged, with no announcement of a rate cut, and any rate cut expectations will be delayed. At 2:30 AM, Fed Chairman Powell's speech will be the main focus, and it is expected that he will reiterate previous statements without providing specific viewpoints. As I said regarding the washing issue, any rate cut is bullish for international financial investments; it's just a matter of timing, whether it is advanced or delayed. On the surface, advancing or delaying does not show obvious bullish or bearish impacts, but it’s important to understand that in the short term, major news, as long as it’s not particularly clear bullish news, will convert into short-term bearish sentiment. This is also the main reason why the market generally feels that cryptocurrency prices will decline again.
Based on my personal experience over the years, the impact of fundamentals can be either advanced or delayed. Before the announcement of the rate decision in the evening, there will be a pullback, followed by another dip. This aligns with technical analysis and market experience, which is the main reason for initially favoring bullish positions in Bitcoin.
Therefore, in the short term before the fundamentals are released, Bitcoin can be positioned at high levels before the data comes out, looking at 95000-93000; Ethereum should also enter at high positions, looking at 1750-1700.
