$BTC $SOL $BNB Explosion! Tonight at midnight, Powell speaks. Hawkish or dovish? The answer is that the market has already exploded with activity, as everyone is closely watching Powell's speech tonight. This is undoubtedly a super storm in the financial market! Will it be a hawkish tough stance or a dovish gentle signal? This question seems complex, but mastering the key steps will allow for easy predictions!

According to reliable sources, the market believes that the probability of a rate cut in May is only 3%. Last week's U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, which directly reduced the probability of a rate cut in June to only 30%. Various signs indicate that the next rate cut is likely to come in July. So, what are the highlights of this May interest rate meeting?

The biggest suspense is whether the Federal Reserve will reveal the prerequisites for a rate cut! It can be broken down into three key steps:

First step: Significant economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve needs to see a sharp decline in U.S. consumption data or a drastic rise in the unemployment rate. However, in the past month, the situation has been quite the opposite. Domestic demand in GDP grew by 3%, and the non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, showing an unexpectedly hot economy!

Second step: Stable and controllable inflation. Even if the economy cools smoothly, the Federal Reserve still needs to closely monitor whether inflation will rebound due to tariffs. If tariffs cause inflation to rebound in June or July, the Federal Reserve must convince itself that this is just a temporary phenomenon and that inflation will not remain high in the long term. It's like opening the refrigerator door and carefully trying to fit an elephant inside; every step is crucial!

But the harsh reality is that we haven't even seen the first step of economic slowdown, let alone convince the Federal Reserve that inflation is temporary. Considering all factors, it is more likely that Powell's speech tonight will warn the market that the Federal Reserve will not act prematurely and will not provide any expected path for rate cuts!

Therefore, the conclusion is clear: Powell is highly likely to give a hawkish speech tonight! However, just as the market is nervously waiting, a significant positive news suddenly arrives! Conan has received joint investment from three top venture capital firms, and community activity has reached the top of the entire network, with a surge in the market about to erupt! On the eve of Powell's speech storm, will Conan rise against the trend and become the biggest dark horse in the market? Let's wait and see! #美联储FOMC会议