Bitcoin is now around $97,000 after a slight leap of more than 3% in 24 hours due to positive news about trade talks between the U.S. and China, and also a new bill in New Hampshire allowing the state to invest up to 5% of its reserves in Bitcoin under strict controls.
The largest digital currency is experiencing high volatility, creating opportunities for significant profits but also exposing you to high risks if circumstances change. That's why we'll discuss the best-case and worst-case scenarios, analyzing the global economic and political reality affecting prices and market movements.
Best Case Scenario 🎯
If funds like BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust continue to attract billions, this could push the price above $120,000 in the coming months with improved liquidity and institutional demand.
Clarifying a regulatory framework in America and Europe if the U.S. Congress decides to pass clear legislation for crypto, like the GENIUS Act for stablecoins, and if the European Union activates MiCA without delay, this will encourage banks and new investments to enter the market with confidence.
Improved geopolitical conditions if U.S.-China negotiations succeed and trade tensions ease, which is expected after the upcoming visit from the Treasury Secretary, this will lead investors to try risk assets like Bitcoin instead of gold.
Technical developments in the Bitcoin network, and if applications on Layer 2 expand or solutions like Taproot emerge more broadly, this will reduce fees and increase Bitcoin adoption as a means of payment and in decentralized finance.
In this scenario, the price could double over the year and break the $150K barrier by the end of 2025, especially with a global trend toward seeking cash alternatives outside the traditional banking system.
Worst Case Scenario 😱
If the SEC or Congress decide to impose stricter rules on funds or classify Bitcoin as a security instead of a commodity, this could freeze or withdraw ETF funds quickly, causing the price to drop rapidly. If the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates to tackle inflation and maintains interest rates around 5% or more, this will pull liquidity from risk assets like Bitcoin to anything more guaranteed.
Global geopolitical or security tension, any new regional war, or a return of tension between the major powers could lead investors to turn back to gold and cash instead of crypto, causing an immediate drought in digital liquidity.
Any major vulnerability in the Bitcoin network or a hack of large wallets could shake market confidence and cause the price to plummet by around 50%.
In the worst case, the price could drop to below $40,000 to $60,000, especially if institutional liquidity suddenly withdraws.
The current situation and global economic and political involvement
Bitcoin is currently around $96,900 after a 2% rise as the U.S. market opens, awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. New Hampshire is the first U.S. state to allow investment of up to 5% of reserves in Bitcoin, provided the market is large (over $500 billion), opening the door for early government investments. With U.S. officials visiting China to ease tariffs on exports and imports, this reduces risks for high-risk assets like digital currencies. BlackRock's ETF flows have so far brought in about $7 billion in net inflows to its iShares Bitcoin Trust, surpassing Gold ETF flows on SPDR, even though Bitcoin's annual gain so far is only around 4%.
