UPDATE 🔴

Black Swan Alert:

India-Pakistan tensions escalate into military conflict

The India-Pakistan flashpoint has turned kinetic, confirming earlier warnings.

• Pakistan’s PM called India’s actions “an act of war,” convening the National Security Council

• India conducted airstrikes on Pakistani soil with Rafale jets, SCALP missiles, and Hammer bombs, targeting alleged militant camps

• Pakistan claims it downed five Indian aircraft, reporting 8 deaths and 35 injuries

• Diplomatically, Pakistan protested to the UN; India denies civilian targeting

• U.S. supports India, Turkey backs Pakistan, China urges calm

As nuclear powers, their conflict threatens global markets.

Expect:

• Safe-haven demand for USD and U.S. treasuries

• Pressure on Asian currencies and equities

• Volatility in oil, gold; crypto may lag unless liquidity tightens

Geopolitical shocks fuel market moves. Escalation could trigger sell-offs in overstretched assets.