This week, the Fed - in the person of those same people who in 2021 said that everything is under control - again did not lower interest rates. Why? Because inflation is 'high'. The current level is 2.4%, slightly above the target of 2%. Sounds terrible, right? Especially when the University of Michigan (a very reliable source, as economists themselves claim) forecasts inflation expectations at 6.5%. It’s like the fire department seeing smoke and deciding: 'Oh well, only the curtains will burn. No reason to douse it with water!'
But you know who didn't fall for this game? The crypto market. Bitcoin is currently rapidly approaching $100,000. This is, by the way, more than the salary of most economists who advised us against buying BTC in 2018. Oh, how awkward.
The reason? Very simple: the market no longer believes in the rationality of central banks. While Powell, with a stone face, mumbles about 'sustainable employment' and 'soft landing', MicroStrategy is buying bitcoins for $21 billion. Do you know who else doesn't believe the Fed? Morgan Stanley. They are launching spot crypto trading through E*Trade. This is not just another meme coin with a dog; this is institutional capital.
This means that major players no longer want to play this eternally inflationary roulette. They are betting on an asset that no one can print.
Now think: if bitcoin is a bubble, as we've been told for years, then why are the smartest money in the world, including Wall Street, going there? Maybe because it's not a bubble, but a lifeline while the Fed hits another bottom?
So yes - rates are not being lowered. And yes, the market has already calculated this. And here’s the news: crypto no longer reacts to the Fed like it used to. Because one system is built on scarcity, and the other is built on promises. And guess which one is winning?
The question is not when the Fed will lower the rate. The question is how many bitcoins you will have by then. $BTC
