On May 8, 2025, at 2 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its May interest rate decision.

According to the Federal Reserve observation tool, the market expects a 97.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the current interest rate unchanged in May, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 2.8%. The U.S. April non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 177,000 non-farm jobs, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, indicating a continued robust labor market and reducing the urgency for a short-term rate cut!

This meeting is very unlikely to result in a rate cut; currently, market operations suggest focusing on short positions!

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