The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting is a pivotal event in the US financial calendar. Here's what you need to know about the upcoming meeting:
What is FOMC?
The FOMC is a committee of the Federal Reserve Board that sets monetary policy, including setting interest rates. They hold eight regularly scheduled meetings per year.
Upcoming Meeting Schedule:
The FOMC has a meeting scheduled for May 6-7. Given the current economic climate, it's likely that interest rates will be held steady at a range of 4.25%-4.50%.
Key Discussion Points:
- *Interest Rates:* Markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady, but there are predictions of potential rate cuts in July, with a 56% chance priced in.
- *Trade Wars:* Trump's tariffs have muddied the economic outlook, and the impact on growth and inflation remains uncertain.
- *Economic Data:* There's a divide between "hard" and "soft" data, with hard data showing a strong economy, while soft data indicates deteriorating sentiment.
*Potential Outcomes:*
- Rate Cuts:Possible rate cuts in July, September, and October, with Goldman Sachs predicting three consecutive 0.25% rate cuts.
- Steady Rates: If inflation remains sticky and tariffs hurt growth less than expected, rates could stay steady for the rest of the year.
- Recession:A trade war escalation and recession could prompt more aggressive rate cuts.
