Tonight's probability of interest rate cuts is basically zero, as Trump's tariffs have caused inflation to rebound, and the Federal Reserve is hesitant to take rash actions for fear of losing control over prices.
So there's no need to focus too much on interest rate cuts.
The key focus should be on Powell's speech.
Powell's speech is the main event:
Dovish (bullish): hinting at rate cuts in June or July, even saying "ready to act at any time" → Bitcoin could take off directly.
Neutral (volatile): playing Tai Chi, saying "decisions will be based on data" → the market may drop and then consolidate, waiting for further signals.
Hawkish (bearish): emphasizing "inflation is too high, we must endure" → Bitcoin could plummet.
Tonight's market depends entirely on Powell's words, either reduce positions in advance to watch the show, or set stop losses for bottom fishing. Remember, the Federal Reserve dares not let the market crash, but is also afraid of letting inflation go out of control, so the probability of "playing Tai Chi" is the highest; don't be fooled by short-term fluctuations.
