Temporarily not adding to ETH

Although optimistic about the ETH upgrade, there are several important reasons for not adding to ETH at this time.

1. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has yet to bottom out, so it must surge once to break out of the downward channel. In the short term, BTC has limited upside potential, at most reaching 100,000, so ETH still needs to explore sideways consolidation. Unless BTC experiences a larger-than-expected rally in the upcoming bull market, the probability is too low.

2. There is no trading volume at the bottom of ETH; only when there is a significant increase in volume will it be the right time to add to positions.

3. The monthly chart is probing for a bottom; even if it doesn't drop, it won't move up in the next two months. It's really not suitable to buy more now; it's better to hold the original position and see how the monthly chart closes.

4. Today, ETH/BTC shows a bottoming trend, but as mentioned earlier, the probability of a clear bullish trap here is high. Monitor the trends of Binance futures trading pairs to see if there is a major bottom in the next two months.

5. The upgrade is beneficial; it was originally expected in April but has been delayed until now. At this point, the positive news becoming reality is actually negative.

6. I still expect ETH to have a rally, and I have a strange confidence in that, so according to the reflexivity principle, it still has to drop.

✔ Observe the trends in the next two months, benchmark against the current mindset, and then summarize.✔