The chart shows the market is now in the 4.1 stage which has ended past trends before deep crashes.
Price may test key zones near $54K and $48K with a full breakdown aiming toward the $9.6K area.
This structure follows a full cycle from accumulation to distribution and now points to high downside risk.
Bitcoin is now showing signs of entering the 4.1 redistribution phase, according to a detailed market structure chart published May 5, 2025. The technical cycle, mapped by analyst Gert van Lagen, outlines a completed accumulation-to-distribution sequence. The pattern suggests Bitcoin may be preparing for a sharp breakdown toward full-blown recession levels.
Source: X
This model tracks Bitcoin’s multi-year journey beginning in late 2022, where the first signs of a new accumulation zone formed. Since then, the cryptocurrency has advanced through multiple structured price phases. Each step, including fast moves, tension builds, and trend continuations, points toward predictable crowd-driven behavior.
The current phase reflects a potential top near $110,000, shifting prices into a broad distribution zone. If this 4.1 phase unfolds as expected, Bitcoin may face accelerated selling pressure. The chart’s final projection shows a possible fall below $10,000 in the most extreme case.
Accumulation Through Expansion: Bitcoin’s Road to $110,000
Bitcoin’s cycle began with the 1.1 accumulation phase around late 2022, followed by a sharp 1.2 fast price move upward. The 1.3 building pre-tension stage occurred in early 2023, leading to a breakout and further trend continuation in 1.4. This set the tone for renewed interest in the asset.
By mid-2024, Bitcoin entered the 2.1 re-accumulation phase, stabilizing above $30,000 before launching another 2.2 rally. Momentum pushed the asset into the 2.3 pre-tension zone, a sideways move that preceded the 2.4 trend continuation above $70,000. Each move aligned closely with historical phase models.
Entering 2025, the price surged into the 3.1 distribution phase, forming a peak just under $110,000. This was followed by 3.2 fast upward movement and 3.3 pre-tension, showing loss of momentum. The 3.4 phase attempted to continue the uptrend, but the chart now shows signs of failure.
Current Breakdown Points to Potential Market Reversal
Bitcoin is currently transitioning through the 4.1 re-distribution phase, a structure that typically precedes significant market declines. The chart highlights early rejection zones with prices hovering below prior highs. This stage is marked by sideways trading, failed rallies, and heavy overhead pressure.
In historical market cycles, this phase has consistently led to broader trend collapses. The lower support zone between $68,000 and $54,000 is now under stress. The structure predicts that if price breaks below this floor, a fast downward move toward $33,000 or lower could follow.
The most bearish scenario includes a full drop to $9,600, representing a complete cycle reset. Visual cues on the chart mark this path as a possible 3.2 fast price move downward. The structure’s alignment with past tops reinforces caution among traders and institutions.
Could Bitcoin’s 4.1 Breakdown Lead to a Full-Blown Recession?
Now that Bitcoin appears to be in the 4.1 redistribution stage, the central question becomes clear: will this pattern trigger a market-wide collapse?
The chart reflects textbook cycle behavior with prices nearing breakdown zones. If selling accelerates, support may erode quickly across the board. Investors now watch closely as Bitcoin tests its most important levels since early 2023.
