Brothers, the logic in the cryptocurrency world has completely changed! Stop fixating on the superficial issue of whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates; it's like a pack of hungry wolves surrounding a dining table, no one dares to move their chopsticks without a signal.

Let's do some calculations: over the past two years, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to the heavens, yet Bitcoin still surged from $16,000 to $100,000. The market is not short of money; it's just that the money is lying dormant in banks like a 'turtle hiding its head.' Why? Because everyone is waiting for a moment of certainty—just like when the dealer in a casino shouts 'deal'—once the Federal Reserve hints at lowering interest rates, funds will flood into the cryptocurrency market like a burst dam.

The Federal Reserve now has three cards to play:

1. Continue to stubbornly raise interest rates: the cryptocurrency market will play dead, just like in 2022, continuing to decline.

2. Engage in Tai Chi, claiming to be observing: the market will continue to be half-alive, fluctuating like an ECG every day.

3. Suddenly hint at lowering interest rates: Bitcoin could rise from the dead along with altcoins, replaying the crazy scene of a 15% single-day surge after a 50 basis point rate cut in September 2024.

The key is the liquidity of the dollar, which is like a faucet. The cryptocurrency market is like a tightly wound hose; as soon as the Federal Reserve loosens it even a little—like signaling a rate cut during the May FOMC meeting—the funds that have been pent up for three years will burst forth. Historical data shows that every time a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle begins, Bitcoin's average increase exceeds 300%.

The market is now in a delicate balance:

On one hand, the U.S. GDP shrank by 0.3%, and the core PCE inflation is at 2.6%, with signs of economic recession becoming increasingly evident. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates a possible 100 basis points rate cut this year, and interest rate futures bet over 60% on a rate cut in November.

In this case, the cryptocurrency market is like a fully drawn bow, just waiting for the 'starting gun' from the FOMC meeting. Once the gun goes off, everyone will rush into the market to grab chips.

A reminder:

Don't be misled by hawkish rhetoric: in 2024, the Federal Reserve said it would raise rates, yet in September, they directly cut rates by 50 basis points. Pay attention to the market capitalization of stablecoins: the issuance of USDT and USDC is a barometer for the inflow of funds. Be wary of the risk of good news being priced in: if the expectations of a rate cut are prematurely priced in, it may 'die in the light' after realization.

Finally, let me leave you with a thought: it’s not a question of whether to enter the market, but whether you have enough bullets. The whistle for the Federal Reserve's rate cut may sound at any time, so get ready to welcome the largest wave of wealth in three years!