#FOMCMeeting

Market expectations for the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on May 7, 2025, are that interest rates will remain unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%. This expectation is reinforced by the 97% probability indicated by federal funds futures contracts.

Despite President Trump's pressure for rate cuts, the consensus is that the Fed will maintain caution, prioritizing the fight against inflation, which remains above the 2% target. The recent slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is seen as influenced by an increase in imports ahead of potential tariffs, rather than a fundamental deterioration of the economy.

Market focus will be on the FOMC statement and President Powell's press conference, seeking signs about the future of monetary policy and the timing of potential rate cuts later this year. Although initial expectations pointed to multiple cuts in 2025, the market has gradually adjusted these expectations, with a higher probability of a first cut at the July meeting.

Uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump's tariffs on the economy and inflation adds complexity to the scenario, with some analysts suggesting that cuts may take longer to occur, depending on the evolution of economic data. The Fed emphasizes that its decisions will be based on concrete economic data, rather than projections or sentiment indicators.