#USHouseMarketStructureDraft The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve will meet today and tomorrow (May 6 and 7, 2025) to make a decision on interest rates. Forecasts indicate that the central bank will keep the interest rate unchanged, within the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%, amid ongoing uncertainty regarding the impact of new tariffs on the U.S. economy.

Key updates:

1- High likelihood of maintaining rates: The "CME FedWatch" tool indicates that the probability of a rate cut at this meeting does not exceed 1.8%, reinforcing expectations of maintaining rates.

2- Political pressures without response: Despite President Trump's repeated calls for a rate cut to support economic growth, the Federal Reserve remains cautious, pointing to inflation risks arising from the new tariffs.

3- Market anticipation: Markets, including cryptocurrencies and gold, are reacting cautiously to the expected decision. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have declined, while gold has risen by over 2% supported by a weaker dollar and increased demand for safe havens.

Finally, some analysts expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates starting in July, especially if the effects of the tariffs begin to negatively impact inflation and the labor market. However, so far, there are no strong indications of economic weakness sufficient to justify an immediate rate cut.