The surface article of whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates or not is like a pack of hungry wolves gathered around a dining table; no one dares to pick up their chopsticks until the whistle blows. Let's do some calculations: In the past two years, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates endlessly, yet Bitcoin still surged from $16,000 to $100,000. The market is not lacking money; it's just that the money is lying low in the banks like a 'turtle withdrawing its head.' Why? Because everyone is waiting for a moment of certainty—just like when the dealer at a casino calls for 'show your cards.' Once the Federal Reserve hints at lowering interest rates, funds will flood into the cryptocurrency market like a burst dam. The Federal Reserve currently has three cards to play:

1. Continue to stubbornly raise interest rates: The crypto market will play dead, continuing the downward trend as it did in 2022.

2. Play it safe and say they are observing: The market will remain half-alive, oscillating like an electrocardiogram every day.

3. Suddenly hint at lowering interest rates: Bitcoin could bring the altcoins back to life, repeating the madness of a 15% surge in a single day after a 50 basis point rate cut in September 2024.

The key lies in the faucet of U.S. dollar liquidity. Right now, the crypto market is like a tightened water pipe; as soon as the Federal Reserve loosens it a bit—like sending signals to lower interest rates at the May FOMC meeting—the funds that have been held back for three years will gush out instantly. Historical data shows that every time the Federal Reserve starts a rate-cutting cycle, Bitcoin's average increase exceeds 300%.