Let's talk about some ultra-dry goods, there are no shanzhai seasons!
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Is everyone particularly nostalgic for the past, when there were continuously hot tokens, with multiples of ten or more in the secondary market?
Actually, it’s not that we won't see that in the future,
it's just that specific conditions are needed.
That is the increase in Bitcoin, why do I say this?
Let's review the several stages of this round of secondary shanzhai explosion.
First Stage
Bitcoin's increase from December 2022 to March 2023 was about 90%.
December 2022, the time of my pinned content, was the early stage of a bull market, the first hot season.
Hot tokens led by OP, SSV, and LDO experienced an increase of about 5 times.
Second Stage
Bitcoin's increase from September 2023 to January 2024 was 192%.
In this stage, the performance of secondary shanzhai was the craziest.
Shanzhai coins represented by SEI, WLD, OM, IMX rallied more than ten times.
Third Stage
Bitcoin's increase from September 2024 to January 2025 was 110%.
Shanzhai coins represented by SUI and NEIRO increased by more than 5 times, while most shanzhai coins increased by 2 to 3 times.
From the logic above, it is not difficult to see that only when Bitcoin's increase is greater, the potential for hot shanzhai increases is higher.
Currently, Bitcoin is at 94,000, how much do you think the increase potential is left?
First, excluding doubling, I do not believe Bitcoin will have such a large increase next, many supporting conditions are no longer in place, such as the liquidity from interest rate cuts.
Even if there are interest rate cuts, their strength is far from that of 2020 and 2021.
The lack of liquidity will inevitably suppress the upward space of Bitcoin.
The previous high near Bitcoin is around 110,000. Assuming Bitcoin breaks the pressure level of 97 and continues to reach around 110,000, the increase is only 17 points.
So how big of a splash can shanzhai make?
According to my thinking, to have a big secondary market, either Bitcoin needs to increase significantly or decrease significantly.
Otherwise, there won't be big opportunities in the secondary market!
Therefore, observing more and acting less is the way to survive moving forward.
