#美国众议院市场结构讨论草案
1. Technical Analysis
Currently, the Bitcoin price is fluctuating around the 94,300 range. The 4-hour candlestick pattern has consecutively closed three bearish candles, showing a clear bearish dominance. From the technical indicators perspective, the MACD histogram continues to maintain negative values, further confirming the advantage of bearish forces.
In terms of key price levels, there is important support at 93,500, where the 200-day moving average is located, providing strong support to the price. If this support level is breached, the Bitcoin price may further drop to the 90,000 mark. The upper resistance level is at 97,384, which is the high on May 5. If this resistance level can be successfully broken, it will open up upward space and may aim to test the 100,000 round number.
2. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow Analysis
1. Policy Level: The U.S. House of Representatives today announced a draft for cryptocurrency regulation, which is expected to intensify market volatility in the short term; investors need to closely monitor policy details and market reactions.
2. Positioning Situation: Currently, 88% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is in a profitable state, indicating that the overall market positioning cost is relatively low, providing some support for the price. The 75,000 to 95,000 range has formed a new structural bottom, with considerable support strength.
3. Operation Strategy
1. Aggressive Strategy: If the Bitcoin price drops to the 93,500 support level and stabilizes here, one can attempt to go long with a light position. It is recommended to set a stop-loss at 93,000, with a target price aimed at the 97,384 resistance level.
2. Conservative Strategy: Patiently wait for the price to effectively break through the 97,384 resistance level, then follow the trend to go long. Set the stop-loss at 96,500, with the target price looking towards the 100,000 round number.
3. Shorting Strategy: Once the price breaks below the 93,500 key support level, one can enter a short position when the price rebounds to around 94,000. Set the stop-loss at 94,500, with the target price looking down to 90,000.
graph TD;
A[Bitcoin price fluctuates around 94,300] --> B[4-hour candlestick shows three consecutive bearish candles, MACD histogram is negative, bearish dominance]
B --> C[Key support level 93,500 (200-day moving average)]
C --> D{Is the support level breached?}
D -->|Yes| E[Price drops to 90,000]
D -->|No| F[Maintains fluctuation or rebounds]
B --> G[Upper resistance level 97,384 (May 5 high)]
G --> H{Is the resistance level broken?}
H -->|Yes| I[Aiming for 100,000 mark]
