#ETH Brothers, the logic of the cryptocurrency market has completely changed! Stop fixating on the superficial issue of whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates; it's like a pack of hungry wolves surrounding a dining table, no one dares to pick up their chopsticks without a signal.
Let's do some math: Over the past two years, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates endlessly, yet Bitcoin surged from $16,000 to $100,000. The market is not lacking money; it's just that all the money is lying in banks like a 'turtle retreating its head.' Why? Because everyone is waiting for a moment of certainty—just like when the dealer at a casino says 'Reveal the cards.' Once the Federal Reserve signals a rate cut, funds will rush into the crypto market like a flood breaking through a dam.
The Federal Reserve currently has three cards to play:
1. Continue to be stubborn and raise interest rates: the crypto market will play dead, experiencing a prolonged decline like in 2022.
2. Play it safe and say to wait and see: the market will continue to be half-alive, fluctuating like an ECG.
3. Suddenly signal a rate cut: Bitcoin could bring altcoins back to life, repeating the crazy rise of 15% in a single day after a 50 basis point cut in September 2024.
The key lies in the liquidity of the dollar, this faucet. Right now, the crypto market is like a tightly twisted water pipe; as soon as the Federal Reserve loosens it just a bit—such as signaling a rate cut at the May FOMC meeting—the funds that have been pent up for three years will gush out instantly. Historical data shows that every time the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, Bitcoin's average increase exceeds 300%.
The market is currently in a delicate balance:
On one hand, US GDP shrank by 0.3%, and core PCE inflation is at 2.6%, with recession signals becoming increasingly evident. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates a possible rate cut of 100 basis points within the year, and interest rate futures bet on a probability of over 60% for a rate cut in November.
In this situation, the crypto market is like a fully drawn bow, just waiting for the 'starting gun' of the FOMC meeting. Once the gun goes off, everyone will rush into the market to grab chips.
A reminder:
Don’t be misled by the rhetoric of rate hikes: the Federal Reserve said it would raise rates in 2024, yet in September, it directly cut rates by 50 basis points. Pay attention to the market cap of stablecoins: the issuance of USDT and USDC is a barometer for funds entering the market. Be wary of the risk of good news being priced in: if rate cut expectations are overdrawn, the reality may 'die in the light' after the event.
Lastly, let me leave you with this: it's not a question of whether to enter the market now, but whether you have enough bullets. The whistle for the Federal Reserve's rate cut may sound at any moment, so be ready to embrace the biggest wave of wealth in three years! #美联储FOMC会议 #加密市场回调