Countdown to the Federal Reserve's decision on #美联储FOMC会议 ! The market bets on a 97.2% probability of holding steady!

The Federal Reserve is about to do something big! At 2 AM on May 8, the time bomb of the interest rate decision will explode on time.

Market data is glaringly clear: 97.2% of people bet that interest rates will remain unchanged, while only 2.8% are daring enough to gamble on an unexpected rate cut. But don’t be fooled by these numbers; the futures market has already exploded – a lot of capital is frantically betting on three rate cuts in the second half of the year!

Now the entire financial circle is fixated on two numbers: April's non-farm employment (an increase of 177,000 people) and core PCE inflation. If the inflation data plays tricks again, the first rate cut will definitely be delayed from June to July, and the interest rate range of 4.25%-4.5% will have to endure for another three months. To put it bluntly, as long as there is no rate hike, it’s a win; even a delayed rate cut is good news!

Investors need to keep their eyes peeled: the rate hike cycle has already turned a page, and now the Federal Reserve holding steady is a victory. The market has fully priced in expectations for a rate cut, and even if the timing is pushed back, the stock market can still thrive. After all, at the turning point of monetary policy, expectations are worth more than reality!

This interest rate decision is not only a barometer of monetary policy but also a mirror to test the gap between market predictions and the real economy!