The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve is meeting today and tomorrow (May 6 and 7, 2025) to decide on interest rates. Forecasts indicate that the central bank will keep the interest rate unchanged, within the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%, amid ongoing anticipation regarding the impact of new tariffs on the U.S. economy.

Key updates:

1- High likelihood of holding: The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the likelihood of a rate cut at this meeting does not exceed 1.8%, reinforcing expectations of holding.

2- Political pressures without response: Despite President Trump's repeated calls for a rate cut to support economic growth, the Federal Reserve remains cautious, citing inflation risks arising from new tariffs.

3- Market watch: Markets, including cryptocurrencies and gold, are reacting carefully to the expectations of the decision. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have decreased, while gold has risen by more than 2%, supported by a weaker dollar and increased demand for safe havens.

Finally, some analysts expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates beginning in July, especially if the effects of tariffs begin to negatively impact inflation and the labor market. However, so far, there are no strong indications of economic weakness sufficient to justify an immediate rate cut.