The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve is meeting today and tomorrow (May 6 and 7, 2025) to decide on interest rates. Forecasts indicate that the central bank will keep the interest rate unchanged within the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%, amid ongoing anticipation regarding the impact of new tariffs on the U.S. economy.

Key Updates:

1- High likelihood of stabilization: The "CME FedWatch" tool indicates that the probability of a rate cut at this meeting does not exceed 1.8%, reinforcing expectations for stabilization.

2- Political pressure without response: Despite President Trump's repeated calls to lower interest rates to support economic growth, the Federal Reserve remains cautious, pointing to inflation risks arising from the new tariffs.

3- Market anticipation: Markets, including cryptocurrencies and gold, are reacting cautiously to the decision expectations. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have decreased, while gold has risen by more than 2% supported by a weak dollar and increased demand for safe havens.

Finally, some analysts expect that the Federal Reserve will begin to lower interest rates starting in July, especially if the effects of the tariffs start to negatively impact inflation and the labor market. But so far, there are no strong indicators of economic weakness sufficient to justify an immediate rate cut.