Since 16000, the price of BTC has shown a clear consolidation + rally structure. The white circles in the chart represent a long-term fluctuation after a wave of narratives has been completed;

The green arrows indicate that a new narrative has emerged!

The first time was the shift in monetary policy, the macro narrative brought by the bottoming of the U.S. stock market, with the collapse of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank mixed in;

The second time was the approval of the BTC spot ETF, with a brief correction mixed in after the 'good news materialized';

The third time was the favorable policy narrative after Trump's victory, which rose quickly but lacked sustained strength...

Currently, we are in the fourth instance, where the narrative is the weakening expectation of tariff-related negative impacts, but it is clear that the upward momentum in price is beginning to slow down, and we are currently in a state lacking a strong narrative;

You will find that our cryptocurrency market is still a narrative-driven market. In this bull market, because the narrative is concentrated on BTC, other cryptocurrencies have performed poorly, with the lack of liquidity almost becoming a universal term among everyone;

But I always believe that this market is forward-looking, so expectations often represent confidence. The main driving force that keeps BTC in this range now is the expectation of macro easing;

Coincidentally, there is another FOMC meeting tomorrow night, and I also think that everyone should pay more attention to the macro aspects lately. Technical analysis is suitable to follow the market trends, while the macro data still possesses long-term influence!