#美联储FOMC会议
The big one is coming!
The Federal Reserve faced a situation in 2024 where inflation was receding but the labor market remained resilient, leading to cautious interest rate decisions. For example, in the June 2024 meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged but lowered its unemployment rate forecast for the next two years while raising inflation expectations, reflecting concerns about sticky inflation.
Expectations for interest rate cuts and market speculation: In 2025, the market's bets on rate cuts significantly increased. For instance, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a rate cut in the May 2025 meeting had exceeded 50%, and the probability of rates falling to the 3.50%-3.75% range in June reached 47.2%. This expectation stems from weakening economic data (such as cooling demand and potential increases in unemployment) and easing inflation pressures (like the year-on-year CPI increase falling to 2.4% in March 2025).
Flexible use of policy tools for interest rate adjustments: Directly affects short-term borrowing costs through the federal funds rate. Balance sheet management: tapering (reducing bond holdings) or expanding (such as quantitative easing) to adjust market liquidity. Forward guidance: conveying policy intentions through statements, press conferences, and dot plots to guide market expectations.
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