However, ambiguity regarding inflation, tariffs, and the broader U.S.–China trade conflict has left many participants wary.
“We don’t foresee the FOMC causing a significant shift in markets,” said Augustine Fan, Head of Insights at SignalPlus, in a Telegram message. “It’s a toss-up on direction. Crypto will probably follow broader earnings momentum and how the economy adjusts to the effects of recent trade actions.”
Recent gains in the stock market suggest that investors are factoring in just a slight recession risk, approximately 8%, according to historical drawdown models. That differs from the more negative signals coming from bond markets and macroeconomic projections, Fan added.
Last week, President Trump confirmed there are no immediate intentions for talks with China, lowering expectations for progress in U.S.–China trade negotiations. Nevertheless, the chance of separate trade deals has helped maintain overall risk sentiment, as reported Monday.