Between 2023 and 2024, the rise in Bitcoin prices is mainly driven by two factors:
Changes in the external macro environment and internal capital flows.
Externally, at the beginning of 2023, the Federal Reserve ended its aggressive interest rate hike cycle, and in mid-2023, BlackRock's application for a Bitcoin spot ETF triggered market speculation, igniting investor enthusiasm.
It wasn't until February 2024 that a large amount of capital began to continuously flow in, building a price floor for Bitcoin.
In my personal judgment, in a non-recessionary economic environment, the bottom price level for Bitcoin is around $70,000; estimating the holding cost for Bitcoin ETF investors is approximately $72,000, with actual values fluctuating no more than 5% up or down.
In the first quarter of 2024, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates;
Starting in September of the same year, expectations of Trump's election become new upward momentum.
Entering 2025, first the expectation of Trump implementing a Bitcoin strategic reserve, followed by expectations of tariff suspensions, continuously stimulate the market. Overall, the cryptocurrency market is highly dependent on major event-driven factors, only in the absence of macro events do liquidity factors dominate.
