Ethereum upgrade is imminent, a sharp drop is coming
Good news being fully priced in is bad news; when good news is realized, there is no subsequent development, so the rollout becomes a negative. Retail investors are watching to see if the whales will offload during the upgrade?
Regarding the market, significant volatility is expected this week. On one hand, BTC is facing resistance at $98,000-$100,000 with a slight pullback, and on the other hand, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is scheduled for 2 AM on May 8. The market expects to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%, which may lead BTC to test the daily support at $92,000. This is a key support level worth paying attention to.
If this wave of daily pullback can hold at $92,000 at the close, then the bullish advantage on the daily chart will not be broken, and there will be another opportunity to challenge the $98,000-$100,000 resistance.
In terms of specific operations, it is recommended to wait for BTC to pull back to the $90,000-$92,000 support zone before considering to continue to take light long positions, then set the stop-loss below $90,000.
How will the market proceed next?
In the short term, the market will continue to be led by macro events, and market sentiment is easily influenced by news.
Although there are no particularly negative news this week, the results of the U.S. Treasury auction may trigger short-term volatility.
Powell's remarks during the Federal Reserve meeting on Thursday will also be crucial; if Powell's comments are hawkish, the market will be more cautious.
Additionally, U.S. stocks have recently risen sharply, and the optimistic sentiment has already been digested, indicating a short-term need for correction.
Risk assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks currently lack upward momentum.
Unless there are unexpectedly good news, such as the Federal Reserve hinting at interest rate cuts, a super-hot Treasury auction, or breakthroughs in tariff negotiations, the market is likely to oscillate in the $93,000-$98,000 range.
