#FOMCMeeting Based on the real-time market data of Ethereum (ETH) on May 6, 2025 (current price $1,791.80, EMA30 resistance $1,809.70, MACD short positions dominant), combined with technical indicators and volume-price structure, the following precise strategy for 1 hour is formulated:
Core strategy and points
1. Resistance level for short positions
- Entry conditions: Price rebounds to 1,805-1,810 USD (EMA30 + MA26 overlapping resistance), combined with 1-hour MACD histogram contraction or KDJ overbought (K > 50).
- Target: Pull back to $1,790-$1,795 (EMA5 support), break below to look for $1,780 (daily low).
- Stop loss: set above $1,815 to guard against false breakouts.
2. Support level rebound to go long
- Entry conditions: Price falls back to stabilize in the range of $1,780-$1,785 (daily EMA60 support + on-chain liquidation zone), combined with RSI<30 or bottom divergence signal.
- Target: Rebound to $1,795-$1,805 (EMA10 resistance), take profit in batches after breaking through.
- Stop-loss: set strictly below $1,775, risk ≤3%.
3. Breakthrough short positions
- Entry conditions: Price breaks below $1,780 (strong intraday support), confirmed by 1-hour close and volume > 35 million USDT.
- Target: A drop to $1,760-$1,750 (psychological level + Fibonacci extension), breaking down to look for $1,730.
- Stop loss: dynamically move up to above $1,790 to protect profits.
Key Signals and Risk Control
- MACD Momentum: Current MACD bar -0.92 (short positions continue), DIF ( -3.79) crosses below DEA ( -2.87) deepening the decline, a rebound requires volume support.
- KDJ Indicator: J value 57.5 (neutral to bearish), if the price rebounds to $1,805 it may face resistance and fall back.
- BTC correlation: If Bitcoin falls below $83,000, ETH may accelerate its correction; if it holds above $84,500, it may drive ETH to rebound to $1,800.
- On-chain risk: The current price of ETH is approaching the maximum pain point of $1,780 for options. If it falls below $1,775, it may trigger liquidations exceeding $320 million.
