1. The bull market is entering the 'end phase', and the cost-performance ratio is plummeting.
From the perspective of traditional cycles, it’s like a movie reaching the Easter egg segment—after Bitcoin breaks $100,000, the 'window of opportunity' has long closed, and the remaining plot is more like 'squeezing toothpaste to release goods'.
- Comparison to stock trading: just like when Moutai rises to 2000 yuan, retail investors rushing in is not value investing, it’s betting on who will take the last baton.
- Current situation: good meat has been eaten by institutions; now every trade feels like dancing on a tightrope, needing sharp eyes and quick hands to find 'the exit step'.
2. Trading logic shifts from 'holding coins' to 'dynamic balance'.
Daring to all-in at the bottom in a bear market, while in a bull market you need to learn to 'take profits when you can':
- Dare to buy when it’s cheap: for example, buying Bitcoin when it drops to $50,000 with closed eyes is courage.
- Dare to sell when it’s expensive: holding on when it rises to $120,000 is just greed.
- Core: don’t be a 'dead bull' or 'dead bear'; like practicing Tai Chi, 'reduce positions when prices rise, buy back when they fall', earning from 'volatility spreads'.
3. Position management is more reliable than listening to news.
The market faces daily challenges, but positions remain honest:
- Don’t trust big influencers' calls; their 'faith' might be your 'trap'.
- True experts: position weight = depth of understanding of the cycle.
- For example: if you think the bull market has 3 months left, reduce your position to 30%; if you judge there’s still half a year, you can keep 50% for speculation.
- Ultimate standard: being able to sleep soundly after holding positions is more important than 'how much you earn'.
About altcoins: opportunities are fewer, but 'survivors' are more valuable.
This round of bear market is like a 'bubble squeezing competition', with 90% of projects turning into 'digital ruins':
1. There are more projects than users, all in 'drawing pies and claiming land'.
- Layer 2 and new public chains are as numerous as stalls in a market, but the user base is so small, all in 'self-indulgent development'.
- Reality: projects without users are like restaurants without customers; no matter how gorgeous the menu, they are destined to close.
2. Financing is as fierce as a tiger, cashing out is as quick as a rabbit.
- Many project teams treat tokens as 'ATM machines', selling them off as soon as they are unlocked, even harsher than cutting leeks.
- Pitfall guide: stay away from projects that 'only issue tokens and do nothing', especially those without 'token consumption scenarios' (like buying tokens just to hold, with no place to spend them).
3. Projects that can really make money look like this.
- Like a hen that lays golden eggs: has continuous income (like trading fees) and can give back to holders (buyback and token destruction).
- My watchlist: check project cash flow data daily, put the 'truly profitable' ones into a selection pool, and slowly wait for a pullback opportunity.
Final reminder:
The cryptocurrency world in 2025 is more like a 'hunting ground for experts'—
- In the first half of a bull market, it’s about courage; in the second half, it’s about 'withdrawal speed';
- Altcoins have shifted from 'casting a wide net' to 'precise targeting'; it’s better to miss 100 junk coins than to step on 1 zero-value coin.
Remember: every operation now is to accumulate chips for 'surviving the winter' when the bear market arrives.
