The future of markets now have become more political than anything else , and now there are 2 situations created :
1. Fed will not cut anything now and will not stop QT (they will try to stick with their original plan, that involved QE to start towards end of the year) , and because of this decision not to cut , the “political” side will push so hard the things that it will break and will say that was FED mistake because didn’t cut when they said and now is to late . (Most likely scenario in my opinion)
2. Fed will stop QT probably this month and start cutting rates in June and the markets will react and will have a good pump till end of the year (not the bull markets that everyone expect ) but then next year will enter a full recession and a brutal bear market , and of course Fed will be blamed and “sleepy Joe “ for the numbers …
The best case scenario that everyone dreams is that Fed will stop QT , start cutting rates , will be a bull market that will last till end of 2026 and by that time America will be great again and no recession and everyone will boom financially … but is just a dream 😅.. the level of manipulation and political involvement in the last 2 years will have no other result that something will break bad ….to many bad actors now unfortunately …